专题：好意思联储通知降息50个基点 降息周期A股会若何走🦄九游娱乐(中国)网址在线

　　华尔街见闻

　　鲍威尔屡次强调，好意思联储将逐次会议作念出决策，不会受到商场对降息预期订价的影响，也不会谈判任何政事身分和议题，而是用“对那时（数据）合适的速率或快或慢地接受（降息）行径”。

　　鲍威尔意在强调，最初，好意思联储官员作出任何降息决策齐会嗅觉刻下的经济时势和数据而定，而面前通胀和服务的两大职责之间风险达到平衡，是以是时候开启降息以提振劳能源商场了。

　　第二，好意思联储将逐次会议作念出决策，不会受到商场对降息预期订价的影响，也不会谈判任何政事身分和议题，而是用“对那时合适的速率或快或慢地接受行径”。

　　第三，鲍威尔不认为大幅降息诠释好意思国经济零落摆布，也不诠释服务商场濒临崩溃的旯旮，降息更多是一种防备性质的行径，目的是保不休经济和劳能源商场“安妥”的近况。

　　第四，他承认非农服务可能下修，但依旧是个值得参考的关键数据点，其他好意思联储眷注的劳能源数据还包括：闲适率、服务率、工资增长、职位空白与闲适东说念主数的比值、去职率等多样式的：

重心是，“问题不在于具体数字的水平几何”，而是在昔时几个月情况发生了变化，好意思国通胀的上行风险照实鄙人降，服务的下行风险增多，是以面前好意思联储最先迤逦计策立场因循服务。

　　以下为华尔街见闻整理的鲍威尔9月FOMC大幅降息跋文者会问答门径全记载：

　　问题1：Strong third quarter GDP running 3% so what changed to made the committee go 50． Andhow do you respond to the concerns that perhaps it shows the Fed is more concerned about the labor market， and I guess should we expect more 50s in the months ahead？ And based on what should we make that call？

　　第三季度好意思国GDP预计强劲增长3%，那么是什么变化让好意思联储决定降息50个基点？这是否可能标明好意思联储更细致劳能源商场，将来也会连接每次降息50个基点？咱们应该凭证什么作念出这一判断？

　　回答1：

　　Let me jump in． So since the last meeting， we have had a lot of data come in． We‘ve had the two employment reports July and August． We’ve also had two inflation reports， including one that came in during blackout． We had the QCW report， which suggests that the payroll report numbers that we‘re getting may be artificially high and will be revised down． You know that we’ve also seen that anecdotal data like the Beige Book， so we took all of those， and we went into blackout， and we thought about what to do， and we cleared that this was the right thing for the economy， for the people that we serve， and that‘s how we made our decision． So that’s one question．

　　自前次会议以来，咱们收到了好多数据，有7月和8月的两份非农服务请问，还有两份通胀请问，其中一份是在好意思联储官员静默期内发布的。还有QCW请问标明咱们非农新增服务数可能被东说念主为举高，将会被下调。咱们也看到了像好意思联储褐皮书这样的逸闻数据，是以咱们网罗了统统这些数据，然后参加公诱骗言的静默期，咱们想考该若何作念，并明确了这对经济、对咱们服务的好意思国东说念主民来说是正确的，这等于咱们作念出决定的方式。

　　So a couple things， a good place to start is the SEP． But let me start with what I said， which was that we‘re going to be making decisions， meeting by meeting， based on the incoming data， the evolving outlook， the balance of risks． If you look at the SEP， you’ll see that it‘s a process of recalibrating our policy stance， away from where we had a year ago， when inflation was high and unemployment low， to a place that’s more appropriate given where we are now and where we expect to be． And that process will take place over time． There‘s nothing in the SEP that suggests the committee is in a rush to get this done． This this process evolves over time．

　　（对于将来利率旅途的判断），一个好的开拔点是看经济预测纲目SEP。最初，咱们将凭证收到的数据、络续变化的远景和风险平衡，在逐次会议上作念出决定。望望 SEP你会发现，这是一个再行校准咱们计策立场的过程，辩别一年前通胀高+闲适率低的立场，转向一个更顺应刻下情况和咱们预期的立场。这个过程将跟着时辰的推移而发生。SEP中莫得任何内容标明委员会急于完成（降息）这项职业，这个过程是跟着时辰的推移而发展的。

　　Of course， that‘s a projection． That’s a baseline projection． We know， as I mentioned in my remarks， that the actual things that we do will depend on the way the economy evolves． We can go quicker， if that‘s appropriate， we can go slower if that’s appropriate． We can pause if that‘s appropriate． But that’s what we‘re contemplating． Again， I would point you to the SEP as just an assessment of where， what the committee is thinking today， but the individual members， rather， of the committee， are thinking today， assuming that their particular forecasts take， you know， are realized．

　　天然，这只是一个预测。这是一个基线预测。正如我在发言中提到的，咱们内容作念的事情将取决于经济的发展方式。要是合适，咱们可以加速（降息）速率，要是合适，咱们可以延缓速率。要是合适，咱们可以暂停。但这等于咱们正在谈判的。再次，我想指出，SEP只是对委员会今天的想法的评估，而且是委员会的诸君成员今天的想法，假定他们特定的预测得以达成。

　　问题2： The projections show that the Fed officials expect the Fed funds rate to still be above their estimate of long run neutral by the end of next year． So does that suggest you see rates as restrictive for that entire period？ Does that threaten the weakening of the job market you said you‘d like to avoid， or does it suggest that maybe people see the short run neutral as a little bit higher？

　　预测自大，好意思联储官员预计到来岁年底联邦基金利率仍将高于他们对始终中性利率的算计。那么这是否意味着您认为利率在通盘技术内齐是有断绝性的？这是否恫吓到您所说但愿幸免的服务商场疲软，是否也意味着东说念主们可能认为短期中性利率会略高一些？

　　回答2：：

　　I would really characterize it as this． I think people write down their estimate． Individuals do． I think every single person on the committee， if you ask them， what‘s your level of certainty around that， and they would say there’s a wide range where that could fall． So I think we don‘t know there are model based approaches and empirically based approaches that estimate what the neutral rate will be at any given time． But realistically， we know it by its works． So that leaves us in a place where we’ll be， where we expect， in the base case， to be continuing to remove restriction， and we‘ll be looking at the way the economy reacts to that， and that will be guiding us in our thinking about the question that we’re asking at every meeting， which is， is our policy stance the appropriate one？

　　我简直会这样形色它。这是委员会每个官员个东说念主的预估值，要是你问他们对此的笃定进程如何，他们会说，这个界限可能很大。是以我认为咱们不知说念是否有基于模子的方法和基于训导的方法可以算计任何给定时辰的中性利率。但内容上，咱们通过它的职业旨趣来了解它。因此，在基本场景下，咱们预计会连罗致缩货币计策，咱们将眷注经济对此的反应，这将结合咱们想考在每次会议上提倡的问题，即咱们的计策立场是否合适？

　　We know， if you go back， we know that the policy stance we adopted in July of 2023 came at a time when unemployment was three and a half percent and inflation was 4.2%． Today， unemployment is up to 4.2%， inflation is down to a few tenths above 2%， so we know that it is time to recalibrate our policy to Something that is more appropriate given the progress on inflation and on employment moving to a more sustainable level． So the balance of risks are now even， and this is the beginning of that process I mentioned， the direction of which is toward a sense of neutral， and we‘ll move as fast or as slow as we think is appropriate in real time， what you have is our individual accumulation of individual estimates of what that will be in the base case．

　　咱们知说念，要是细致一下，咱们会发面前2023年7月接受的计策立场是在闲适率为3.5%和通胀率为 4.2%时接受的。如今，闲适率已升至 4.2%，通胀率降至更接近2%，因此咱们知说念，鉴于通胀和服务向更可握续水平迈进的进展，面前是时候再行迤逦咱们的计策，使其更合适。因此，风险平衡面前已平衡，这是我提到的阿谁过程的启动，其标的是朝着中立的标的发展，咱们将凭证咱们认为对那时合适的速率或快或慢地接受行径，点阵图是联储官员对基本场景的个东说念主算计值。

　　问题3：How close was this in terms of the decision， you do have the first dissent by a governor since 2005 I think was the weight clearly in favor of a 50， or was this a very close decision？

　　这是自 2005 年以来第一次有联储理事提倡异议，降息50个基点的共鸣意见有若干？

　　回答3：

　　I think we had a good discussion． You know， if you go back， I talked about this at Jackson Hole， but I didn‘t address the question of the size of the cut． And I think we left it open going into blackout． And so there was a lot of discussion back and forth． Good diversity of division． Excellent discussion today． I think there was also broad support for the decision that the committee voted on． So I would add， though， look at the SEP all 19 of the participants wrote down multiple cuts this year， all 19． That’s a big change from June， right？ 17 of the 19 wrote down three or more cuts， and 10 of the 19 wrote down four more cuts． So， you know， there is a dissent， and there‘s a range of views， but there’s actually a lot of common ground as well．

　　我认为咱们进行了很好的询查。我在杰克逊霍尔谈到了这个问题，但我莫得回答降息幅度的问题。我认为咱们在静默期之前莫得处置这个问题。因此，咱们进行了大宗的询查。不雅点有各样性很好。今天的询查相称精彩。我认为委员会投票通过的决定也得到了平凡的因循。我想补充小数，望望 SEP，统统19名参与者因循本年屡次降息，这与6月份比拟有很大变化，19东说念主中有17东说念主因循本年降息3 次或更多，有10东说念主因循4次以上的降息。是以，存在不欢喜见，也有各样不雅点，但内容上也有好多共同点。

　　问题4： on the pacing here， would you expect this to be running every other meeting？

　　按照这样的节律，您是否定为每隔一次会议齐会进行这样（大幅降息）的询查？

　　回答4：Once we get into next year， we‘re going to take it meeting by meeting， as I mentioned， we would． There’s no sense that the committee feels it‘s in a rush to do this． We made a good， strong start to this． And that’s really， frankly， a sign of our confidence， confidence in inflation is coming down toward 2% on a sustainable basis． That gives us the ability we can， you know， make a good， strong start． But， and I‘m very pleased that we did to me the logic of this， both from an economic standpoint and also from a risk management standpoint， was clear， but I think we’re going to go carefully meeting by meeting and make our decisions as we go．

　　一朝参加来岁，咱们将逐次会议询查此事，正如我之前提到的那样。委员会不会急于这样作念（降降息）。咱们如故取得了精良的开端。坦率地说，这照实标明了咱们的信心，信赖通胀率将以可握续的方式下跌到 2%。这让咱们有智力取得精良的开端。然而，我很欢笑咱们作念到了，不管是从经济角度如故从风险治理角度来看，这其中的逻辑齐很明确，但我认为咱们将在每次会议上齐审慎行事，并跟着时辰鼓励作念出决定。

　　问题5：Your colleagues in your economic projections today see the unemployment rate climbing to 4.4% and staying there， obviously， historically， when the unemployment rate climbs that much over a relatively short period of time， it doesn‘t typically just stop． It continues increasing． And so I wonder if you can walk us through why you see the labor market stabilizing sort of， what’s the mechanism there， and what do you see as the risks？

　　您的共事在今天的经济预测中预测闲适率将攀升至4.4%并保握在这个水平，显着，从历史上看，当闲适率在相对较短的时辰内攀升到这个水平时，它时常不会罢手，而是会连接上升。是以为什么您认为劳能源商场会趋于沉稳，其中的机制是什么，您认为存在哪些风险？

　　回答5：

　　So again， the labor market is actually in solid condition， and our intention with our policy move today is to keep it there． You can say that about the whole economy． The US economy is in good shape． It‘s growing at a solid pace． Inflation is coming down． The labor market is in a strong pace． We want to keep it there that’s what we‘re doing．

　　是以，劳能源商场内容上处于安妥状态，咱们今天接受计策举措的目的是保握这种状态。你可以说通盘经济齐是如斯。好意思国经济现象精良。它正以安妥的速率增，通胀正鄙人降，劳能源商场发展强劲。咱们但愿保握这种状态，这等于咱们正在作念的事情。

　　问题6：“新好意思联储通信社”Nick Timiraos的发问，鉴于近期服务数据的大幅修正，今天的行径是否组成追逐，或者此次比典型降息幅度更大的降息是计策利率口头水平上升的断绝，因此可以预期加速降息的节律将连接下去？

　　回答6：

　　multiple questions in every list． So I would say we don‘t think we’re behind． We do not think we‘re． We think this is timely， but I think you can take this as a sign of our commitment not to get behind． So it’s a strong move．

　　咱们不认为咱们过期（于弧线）了。咱们认为这是实时的（降息），但我认为你可以把这看作是咱们承诺不过期（于弧线）的记号。是以这是一个强有劲的举措。

　　I think it‘s about we come into this with a policy position that was put in place． As you know， I mentioned in July of 2023 which was a time of high inflation and very low unemployment， we’ve been very patient about reducing the policy rate． We‘ve waited． Other central banks around the world have cut many of them several times． We’ve waited， and I think that that patience has really paid dividends in the form of our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably under 2% so I think that is what enables us to take this strong move today．

　　我认为，要津在于咱们以既定的计策立场来搪塞这一问题。如你所知，我提到，2023年7月是高通胀和低闲适率技术，咱们一直相称耐性性恭候缩小计策利率的时机。咱们一直在恭候。宇宙各地的其他央行如故屡次降息，但好意思联储一直在恭候，我认为这种耐性照实带来了答谢，咱们有信心通胀率将握续低于 2%，是以我认为这等于咱们今天有时接受这一有劲举措的原因。

　　I do not think that anyone should look at this and say， Oh， this is the new pace． You know， you have to think about it in terms of the base case． Of course， what happens will happen． So in the base case， what you see is， look at the SEP you see cuts moving along． The sense of this is we‘re recalibrating policy down over time to a more neutral level， and we’re moving at the pace that we think is appropriate given developments in the economy． And the base case， the economy can develop in a way that would cause us to go faster or slower， but that‘s what the base case says．

　　我认为，任何东说念主齐不应该看到这小数就说，哦，（降息50个基点）这是新的节律。你知说念，你必须从基本场景的角度来谈判。天然，该发生的事总会发生。是以在基本情况下，你看到的是，望望 SEP，你会看到降息在进行。这意味着咱们正在跟着时辰的推移将计策再行迤逦到更中性的水平，咱们正在以咱们认为顺应经济发展的步履前进。在基本场景下，经济发展的方式可能会导致咱们走得更快或更慢，但这等于基本场景所说的。

　　问题7： If I could follow up on the balance sheet in 2019 when you did the mid cycle adjustment， you ceased the balance sheet runoff with a larger cut． Today， is there any should there be any signal inferred about how the committee would approach end state on the balance sheet policy？

　　联系2019年的钞票欠债表，那时您进行了中期周期迤逦，罢手了钞票欠债表缩减，并进行了更大的降息。今天，是否有任何信号可以推断委员会将如何处理钞票欠债表计策的最终状态？

　　回答7：

　　So in the current situation， reserves have really been stable． They haven‘t come down． So reserves are still abundant and expected to remain so for some time． As you know， the shrinkage in our balance sheet has really come out of the overnight． RFP， so I think what that tells you is we’re not thinking about stopping runoff because of this at all． We know that these two things can happen side by side， in a sense， they‘re both a form of normalization． And so for a time， you can have the balance sheet shrink， you would also be cutting rates．

　　因此，在刻下情况下，银行储备金照实很沉稳。它们莫得下跌。因此储备金仍然弥散，预计还会握续一段时辰。如您所知，咱们的钞票欠债表的缩减照实是整夜之间发生的。咱们根底莫得谈判会罢手缩表。咱们知说念这两件事（降息+缩表）可以同期发生，从某种意旨上说，它们齐是一种平淡化款式。因此，在一段时辰内，您可以缩减钞票欠债表，同期还可以缩小利率。

　　问题8： just following up on rising unemployment， is it your view that this is just a function of a normalizing labor market？ amid improved supply， or is there anything to suggest that something more concerning， perhaps is taking place here given that other metrics of labor demand have softened． is do you not？ Why should we not expect a further deterioration in labor market conditions if policy is still restricted？

　　跟进闲适率上升的问题，您是否定为这只是劳能源商场平淡化的断绝？供应增多，如故有什么迹象标明，鉴于劳能源需求的其他目的如故减弱，也许正在发生更令东说念主担忧的事情？您不这样认为吗？要是利率计策仍然具有断绝性，为什么咱们不应该预期劳能源商场现象会进一步恶化？

　　回答8：

　　So I think what we‘re seeing is clearly labor market conditions have cooled off by any measure， as I talked about in Jackson Hole and but they’re still at a level． The level of those conditions is actually pretty close to what I would call maximum employment， you know． So you‘re close to mandate， maybe at mandate on that． So what’s driving it？ Clearly， payroll job creation has moved down over the last few months， and this bears watching， meant by many other measures， the labor market has returned to or below 2019 levels， which was a very good， strong labor market， but this is more sort of 2018、2017． So the labor market bears close watching， and we‘ll be giving it that but ultimately， we think， we believe， with an appropriate recalibration of our policy that we can continue to see the economy growing and that will support the labor market in the meantime， if you look at the growth and economic activity data， retail sales data that we just got， second quarter GDP， all of this indicates an economy that is still growing at a solid pace， So that should also support the labor market over time．

　　很较着，不管以何种法度揣度，劳能源商场现象齐如故降温，就像我在杰克逊霍尔会议上谈到的那样，但它们仍然处于一定水平。这些条件的水平内容上相称接近我所说的充分服务。是以接近好意思联储的法定职责，也许如故达到法定职责了。那么是什么推动了它呢？显着，服务岗亭创造在昔时几个月有所下跌，这值得眷注，从许多其他目的来看，劳能源商场如故回到或低于 2019 年的水平，那时是一个相称好、强劲的劳能源商场，但面前更像是 2018 年、2017 年的情况。因此，劳能源商场需要密切眷注，咱们也会赐与眷注，但最终，咱们信赖，通过顺应迤逦计策，咱们可以连接看到经济增长，这将因循劳能源商场，与此同期，要是你望望增长和经济举止数据、咱们刚刚得到的零卖额数据、第二季度的GDP，统统这些齐标明好意思国经济仍在稳步增长，因此这也应该会跟着时辰的推移因循劳能源商场。

　　So， but again we‘re watching， and just on the point about starting to see rising layoffs． If that were to happen， wouldn’t the committee already be too late in terms of avoiding a recession？

　　追问：是以，咱们再次眷注，而况恰恰裁人东说念主数启动上升之际。要是发生这种情况，委员会在幸免经济零落方面是否如故太迟了？

　　So we‘re， that’s， you know， our plan， of course， has been to begin to recalibrate， and we‘re not seeing rising claims， we’re not seeing rising layoffs， we‘re not seeing that， and we’re not hearing that from companies that that‘s something that’s getting ready to happen． So we‘re not waiting for that because， you know， there is thinking that the time to support the labor market is when it’s strong， and not when you begin to see the White House． There‘s some more on that． So that’s the situation we‘re in． We have， in fact， begun the cutting cycle now， and we’ll be watching， and that will be one of the factors that we consider． Of course， we‘re going to look at the totality of the data as we make these decisions， meeting by meeting．

　　咱们的计较天然是启动再行迤逦计策，咱们莫得看到闲适拯救苦求数目上升，也莫得看到裁人东说念主数上升，也莫得听到公司说这些事情行将发生。是以咱们不会恭候，因为，有东说念主认为，因循劳能源商场的最好时机是当它强劲时。对于这小数，还有更多内容。这等于咱们所处的情况。事实上，咱们面前如故启动了降息周期，咱们会密切眷注（劳能源商场降温），这将是咱们谈判的身分之一。天然，在每次会议上，咱们齐会查抄所少见据，然后作念出这些决定。

　　问题9：what would constitute for you and the committee a deterioration in the labor market you‘re pricing in， basically， by the end of next year， 200 basis points of cuts just to maintain a higher unemployment Rate． Would you be moving to a more preemptive monetary policy style， rather than， as you did with inflation， waiting until the data gave you a signal

　　什么会对您和委员会组成“劳能源商场的恶化”？您认为，到来岁底，降息200个基点只是为了保管较高的闲适率。您会接受更具先下手为强的货币计策立场吗？而不是像您在通胀问题上所作念的那样，比及数据给您一个信号再行径。

　　回答9：

　　we‘re going to be watching all of the data， right？ So if， as I mentioned in my remarks， if the labor market were to slow unexpectedly， then we have the ability to react to that by cutting faster． We’re also going to be looking at our other mandate． Though we have greater confidence now that inflation is moving down to 2% but at the same time， our plan is that we will be at 2% over time． So and policy we think is still restrictive， so that should still be happening．

　　咱们会眷注所少见据，因此，要是劳能源商场无意放缓，咱们有智力通过加速降息来搪塞。咱们还将眷注另一个通胀的职责。天然咱们面前更有信心通胀率正降到2%，但与此同期，咱们的计较是跟着时辰的推移通胀率将达到 2%。因此，咱们认为计策仍然具有断绝性，因此应该仍会如斯。

　　I‘m just curious as to how sensitive you’ll be to the labor market， since you forecast we are going to see higher unemployment， and it is going to take a significant amount of monetary easing to just maintain it．

　　追问：我只是趣味您对劳能源商场的明锐度如何，因为您预测咱们将会看到更高的闲适率，而且需要大宗的货币宽松计策才能保管这种状态。

　　So you know what I would say is we don‘t think we need to see further losing in labor market conditions to get inflation down to 2% but we have a dual mandate． And I think you can take this， this whole action as takes take a step back． What have we been trying to achieve？ We’re trying to achieve a situation where we restore price stability without the kind of painful increase in unemployment that has come sometimes with disinflation． That‘s what we’re trying to do， and I think you can take today‘s action as a sign of our strong commitment to achieve that goal．

　　我想说的是，咱们认为咱们不需要看到劳能源商场现象进一步恶化来把通胀率降至2%，但咱们有双重职责。我认为你可以把这通盘行径看作是退一步想考。咱们一直在努力达成什么方针？咱们正努力达成一种场地，即规复价钱沉稳，而不会出现存时奉陪通货紧缩而来的那种痛楚的闲适率上升。这等于咱们正在努力作念的事情，我认为你可以把今天的行径看作是咱们达成这一方针的将强承诺的记号。

　　问题10：You‘re describing this view that you don’t think you‘re behind when it comes to the job market． Can you walk us through the specific data points that you found to be most helpful in the discussions at this meeting？ You mentioned a couple， but would you be able to walk us through what that dashboard told you as far as what you know about the job market now？

　　您形色了这种不雅点，即好意思联储认为我方在服务商场方面并不过期。能向咱们先容一下您认为在本次会议询查中最有匡助的具体数据点吗？您提到了几个，刻下服务商场还有哪些信息去眷注？

　　回答10：

　　Sure． So start with unemployment， which is the single most important one． Probably you‘re at 4.2% that’s， you know， I know that‘s higher than we were． We were used to seeing numbers in the mid and even below mid threes last year． But if you look back over the sweep of the years， that’s a low， that‘s a very healthy unemployment rate． And anything in the low fours is， A， really， is a good labor market． So that’s one thing． Participation is at high levels， it‘s， you know， we’ve had， we‘re right adjusted for demographics， for aging， participation， said， at pretty high levels， that’s a good thing． Wages are still a bit above what would be their wage increases． Rather， are still just a bit above where they would be over the very longer term to be consistent with 2% inflation， but they‘re very much coming down to what that sustainable level is． So we feel good about that． Vacancies over per unemployed is back to what is still a very strong level． It’s not as high as it was． That number reached two to one， two vacancies for every unemployed person as measured， it‘s now around one， but that’s still， that‘s still a very good number． I would say quits have come back down to normal levels． I mean， that could go on and on there．

　　最初是闲适率，这是最关键的一个身分。闲适率4.2%比客岁要高，昔时闲适率在3%的中段或更低，要是细致这些年，你会发现这是一个很低、相称健康的闲适率。任何低于4%的闲适率齐标明劳能源商场现象精良。这是一方面。服务参与率处于高水平，咱们如故凭证东说念主口统计学、老龄化等身分进行了迤逦，服务参与率处于突出高的水平，这是件善事。工资仍略高于应有的工资增长水平，更着实地说，仍略高于与2%通胀率保握一致的始终工资增长水平，但它们正在逐步降至可握续水平。是以咱们对此感到恬逸。每名闲适东说念主员对应的空白职位数下跌，但仍是相称强劲的水平，莫得以前那么高了，以前达到二比一，即每名闲适者对应两个职位空白，面前大致是一比一，这仍是一个相称好的数字。去职率如故回落到平淡水平，这种情况可能会一直握续下去。

　　There are many， many employment indicators． What do they say？ They say this is still a solid labor market． The question isn‘t the level． The question is that there has been change over， particularly over the last few months， and you know， so what we say is， as the upside risk to inflation have really come down， the downside risk to employment have increased ， and because we have been patient and held our fire on cutting wall inflate While inflation has come down． I think we’re now in a very good position to manage the risks to both of our goals．

　　服务目的有好多。它们若何说呢？它们说这仍然是一个褂讪的劳能源商场。问题不在于水平。问题在于，格外是在昔时几个月里，情况发生了变化，是以咱们说，跟着通胀的上行风险照实下跌，服务的下行风险增多了，因为咱们一直保握耐性，在通胀下跌的同期，端正通胀。我认为咱们面前处于相称有益的位置，可以治理咱们两个职责各自濒临的风险。

　　And what do you expect to learn between now and November that will help inform the scale of the cut of the next meeting？

　　追问：您渴望从面前到 11 月之间了解到哪些信息，以协助笃定下次会议的降息幅度？

　　You know， more data． The usual． Don‘t look for anything else． We’ll see another labor report． We‘ll see another jobs report． I think we get． We actually， we could to， we get a second jobs report on the day of the meeting． I think， no， no， on the Friday before the meeting． So and inflation data we’ll get， we‘ll get all this data we’ll be watching． You know， it‘s always a question of， look at the incoming data and ask， what are the implications of that data for the evolving outlook and the balance of risks？ And then go through our process and think， what’s the right thing to do？ Is policy where we want it to be， to foster the achievement of our goals over time． So that‘s what it is， and that’s what we‘ll be doing．

　　你知说念，更多的数据。和往常相同。不要再寻找其他东西了。咱们将看到两份劳能源请问，咱们还将获取通胀数据，即统统这些咱们将眷注的数据。你知说念，这老是一个问题，望望传入的数据，并问，这些数据对络续变化的远景和风险平衡有何影响？然后通过咱们的历程想考，什么是正确的作念法？计策是否合乎咱们的渴望，是否有助于达成咱们的方针。是以这等于咱们要作念的。

　　问题11：we‘ve only been running a little above 100，000 jobs a month on payrolls last three months． Do you view that level of job creation as worrying or alarming， or would you be would you be content if we were to kind of stick at that level？ And relatedly， one of the welcome trends over the last couple of years has been labor market steam coming out through job openings， falling rather than job losses． Do you think that trend has further to run？ Or do you see risk that further labor market cooling will have to come through job losses？

　　昔时三个月，咱们每月新增服务岗亭仅略高于10万个。您认为这种服务岗亭增多水平令东说念主担忧或发出警报吗？或者，要是咱们一直保握这种水平，您会感到恬逸吗？与此联系的是，昔时几年中令东说念主欢叫的趋势之一是劳能源商场热度通过职位空白开释出来，而不是职位减少。您认为这种趋势会握续下去吗？或者，您是否定为劳能源商场进一步降温的风险将不得欠亨过职位减少来达成？

　　回答11：

　　So on the job creation， it depends on the inflows， right？ So if you‘re having millions of people come into the labor force then， and you’re creating 100，000 jobs， you‘re going to see unemployment go up． So it really depends on what’s the trend underlying the volatility of people coming into the country． We understand there‘s been quite an influx across the borders， and that has actually been one of the things that’s allowed unemployment rate to rise as and the other thing is just the slower hiring rate， which is something we also watch carefully． So it does depend on what‘s happening on the supply side and on the curve．

　　服务创造取决于东说念主口流入服务商场，是以，要是少见百万东说念主参加劳能源商场，而且只创造了10万个服务岗亭，那么闲适率就会上升。是以，这内容上取决于流入该国的东说念主口波动背后的趋势。咱们知说念跨境侨民流入量突出大，这内容上是导致闲适率上升的原因之一，另一个身分是招聘速率放缓，这亦然咱们密切眷注的身分。是以，这照实取决于供应方面和供需弧线的情况。

　　So we all felt on the committee， not all， but I think everyone on the committee felt that job openings were so elevated that they could fall a long way before you hit the part of the curve where job openings turned into higher unemployment， job loss． And yes， I mean， I think we are． It‘s hard to know that． You can’t know these things with great precision， but certainly it appears that we‘re very close to that point， if not at it so that further declines in job openings will translate more directly into into unemployment． But it’s been， it‘s been a great ride down． I mean， we’ve seen a lot of of tightness come out of the labor market in that form without it resulting in lower employment．

　　因此，我认为委员会的每个东说念主齐认为，职位空白数目如斯之高，是以可以永劫辰下跌直到传导称更高的闲适率上升。很难知说念何时达到这小数。你不可能相称准确地知说念这些事情，但可以肯定的是，咱们相称接近阿谁点，以至面前齐可能就在这个点上了，那么职位空白的进一步减少将更径直地飘荡为闲适。但这是一个雄壮的下跌过程。我的兴味是，咱们如故看到劳能源商场以这种款式缓解了好多病笃场地，但并莫得导致服务率下跌。

　　问题12：so we‘ve heard some speculation that you may be going with the federal funds rate to three and a half， maybe under 4% and there’s basically an entire generation that has experienced zero or near zero federal fund rate as something we‘re heading in that direction． Again． What’s the likelihood that cheap money is now the norm？

　　咱们听到一些料想，称联邦基金利率可能会降至 3.5%，也许低于 4%，而基本上整整一代东说念主齐资格过零或接近零的联邦基金利率，咱们正朝着这个方上前进。低价货币/超低利率再行成为常态的可能性有多大？

　　回答12：

　　So this is a question． You mean， after we get through all of this， it‘s just great question that we just we can only speculate about． Intuitively， most many， many people anyway， would say we’re probably not going back to that era where there were trillions of dollars of sovereign bonds trading at negative rates， long term bonds trading at negative rates． And it looked like the neutral rate was might even be negative． So there was people were issuing debt， issuing debt at negative rates． It seems that‘s so far away． Now， my own sense is that that we’re not going back to that， but you know， honestly， we‘re going to find out． But you know， it feels， it feels to me and that the neutral rate is is probably significantly higher than it was back then． How high is it？ I just don’t think we know it‘s again， we only know it by its works．

　　咱们只可对此进行推测。直观上，大多数东说念主会说，咱们可能不会回到阿谁期间，当地少见万亿好意思元的主权债券以负利率交游，始终债券以负利率交游，而且那时看起来中性利率以至可能为负。是以有东说念主在以负利率刊行债务。这似乎距离面前如故很远方了。我的嗅觉是咱们不会回到阿谁期间，我嗅觉中性利率可能比那时高得多。它有多高？我也不知说念，只可通过它的职业来了解它。

　　One more， how do you respond to the criticism that will likely come that a deeper rate cut now before the election， has some political motivations．

　　追问：还有一个问题，您如何复兴可能出现的月旦，即在选举前大幅降息是出于某些政事动机？

　　Yeah， so， you know， this is my fourth presidential election at the at the Fed， and you know， it‘s always the same． We’re always， we‘re always going into this meeting in particular and asking， what’s the right thing to do for the people we serve． And we do that， and we make a decision as a group， and then we announce it， and it‘s that’s always what it is． It‘s never about anything else． Nothing else is discussed． And I would also point out that the things that we do really affect economic conditions for the most part with with a lag． So nonetheless， this is what we do． Our job is to support the economy on behalf of the American people， and if we get it right， this will benefit the American people significantly． So this really concentrates the mind， and it’s something we all take very， very seriously． We don‘t put up any other filters． I think if you start doing that， I don’t know where you stop． And so we just want to do that．

　　这是我在好意思联储第四次资格好意思国总统大选，你知说念，老是相同。咱们老是问我方，对咱们服务的好意思国东说念主民来说，什么是正确的事情。咱们这样作念，咱们看成一个团体作念出决定，然后咱们通知它，它老是如斯。它从不涉偏激他任何事情。莫得其他询查。我还要指出的是，咱们所作念的事情照实在很猛进程上影响了经济现象，而且存在滞后断绝。是以尽管如斯，这等于咱们的职业。咱们的职业是代表好意思国东说念主民因循经济，要是咱们作念对了，这将极地面造福好意思国东说念主民。是以这简直让咱们围聚持重力，这是咱们齐相称相称心疼的事情。咱们莫得配置任何其他过滤器。不然要是你启动这样作念，我不知说念你会在那处停驻来。

　　问题13：My first question is，very simply， what message are you trying to send American consumers， the American people with this unusually large rate cut？

　　我的第一个问题很简便：通过此次不同寻常的大幅降息，您想向好意思国滥用者、好意思国东说念主民传达什么信息？

　　回答13：

　　I would just say that， you know， the US economy is in a good place and and our decision today is designed to keep it there． More specifically， the economy is growing at a solid pace． Inflation is coming down closer to our 2% objective over time， and the labor market is is still in solid shape． So our intention is really to maintain the strength that we currently see in the US economy， and we‘ll do that by returning rates from their high level， which has really been the purpose of which has been to get inflation under control． We’re going to move those down over time to a more normal level over time，

　　我只想说，好意思国经济现象精良，咱们今天的决定旨在保握这种现象。更具体地说，经济正在稳步增长。跟着时辰的推移，通胀正鄙人降接近咱们2%的方针，劳能源商场仍然现象精良。是以咱们的意图内容上是保握咱们面前看到的好意思国经济的强劲势头，咱们将通过把利率从高位拉低来达成这一方针，保握利率高位的目的是端正通胀。咱们将跟着时辰推移将利率降至更平淡的水平。

　　just a follow up to that， listening to you talk about inflation moving meaningfully down to 2% is the Federal Reserve effectively declaring a decisive victory over inflation and rising prices．

　　追问：听您考虑通胀率大幅下跌至2%，这内容上意味着好意思联储在抵拒通胀和物价高潮方面取得了决定性的告成吗？

　　No， we‘re not so inflation． You know what we say is we want inflation． The goal is to have inflation move down to 2% on a sustainable basis． And， you know， we’re not really， we‘re close， but we’re not really at 2% and I think we‘re going to want to see it be， you know， around 2% and close to 2% for some time， but we’re certainly not doing， we‘re not we’re not saying mission accomplished or anything like that． But I have to say， though we‘re encouraged by the progress that we have made．

　　不，咱们不会那么细致通胀。咱们想要（一定进程的）通货延长。方针是让通胀率可握续地降至 2%。但咱们面前莫得真实达到2%，可能会在一段时辰内接近2%，是以咱们不会说（抗击通胀的）任务如故完成了这种话。但我必须说，咱们对所取得的进展感到饱读励。

　　问题14：

　　我只是想知说念委员会如何看待咱们所看到的握续的住房通胀，您认为住房通胀率这样高，全体通胀能回到2%方针吗？

　　回答14：

　　Yeah， so housing inflation is the is the one piece that is kind of dragging a bit． If I can say we know that market rents are doing what we would want them to do， which is to be moving up at relatively low levels， but they‘re not rolling over that the leases that are rolling over are not coming down as much， and OER is coming in high． So， you know， it’s been slower than we expected． I think we now understand that it‘s going to take some time for those lower market rents to get into this． But， you know， the direction of travel is clear， and as long as market rents remain， you know， relatively low inflation over time that will show up just the time it’s taking now， several years， rather than just one or two cycles of of annual lease renewals． So that‘s， I think we understand that now， I don’t think the outcome is in doubt again． As long as market rents remain under control， the outcome is not as in doubt． So I would say it‘s the rest of the rest of the portfolio， of the elements that go into core， PCE， inflation or have behaved pretty well． You know， they’re all they all have some volatility． We will get down to 2% inflation， I believe， and I believe that ultimately， we‘ll get what we need to get out of the housing services piece too， some of your colleagues have experienced concern．

　　是的，住房通胀是一个有点连累的身分。不外面前商场房钱正在作念咱们但愿它们作念的事情，即在相对较低的水平增长，然而续约房屋的房钱并莫得下跌那么多，而OER却很高。是以，住房通胀降温的速率比咱们预期要慢。我认为咱们面前解析，那些较低的商场房钱需要一段时辰才能施展作用。然而，前进的标的是明确的，唯有商场房钱保握相对较低的通胀，跟着时辰推移，拉低通胀的断绝就会败泄漏来，这需要几年，而不单是是一两个年度租约续签周期。是以，我不会因此质疑通胀降温。唯有商场房钱保握受控，断绝就不会有疑问，另外，经济数据的其他部分，包括中枢PCE通胀等阐扬齐突出可以。你知说念，它们齐有一定的波动性。我信赖，咱们的通胀率会降到 2%，我信赖，最终，咱们也会从住房服务部分获取所需的收益。

　　It‘s hard to gain that out． The housing market is in part frozen because of lock in with low rates． People don’t want to sell their homes， so because they have a very low mortgage to be quite expensive to refinance． As rates come down， people will start to move more， and that‘s probably beginning to happen already． But remember， when that happens， you’ve got a you‘ve got a seller， but you’ve also got a new buyer， in many cases． So it‘s not， you know， obvious how much additional demand that would make me the real issue with housing is that we have had and are on track to continue to have not enough housing． And so it’s going to be challenging． It‘s hard to find to zone lots that are in places where people want to live． It’s all of the aspects of housing are more and more difficult． And you know， where are we going to get the supply？ And this is not something that the Fed can can really fix， but I think as we normalize rates， you‘ll see the housing market normalize． And I mean ultimately， by getting inflation broadly down and getting those rates normalized and getting the housing housing cycle normalized， that’s the best thing we can do for householders． And then the supply question will have to be dealt with by the market and also by government．

　　以至，你知说念，这种情况发生的可能性有多大？你会如何搪塞房地产商场？很难知说念。房地产商场（的供应量）在一定进程上被之前东说念主们锁定的低利率所冻结。东说念主们不想卖掉他们的屋子，因为他们的典质贷款利率很低，而再融资的资本突出高。跟着利率下跌，东说念主们将启动更多地搬家，这可能如故启动发生了。但请记着，当这种情况发生时，你有一个卖家，但在很厚情况下，你也会有一个新买家。是以，你知说念，有若干额外的需求会让我感到不较着。住房的真实问题是，咱们如故领有并将连接领有不及的住房供应。是以这将是一个挑战。很难找到东说念主们想住的处所的分区地块。住房的统统方面齐越来越清贫。你知说念，咱们要从那处获取供应？这不是好意思联储有时真实处置的问题，但我认为跟着利率平淡化，你会看到房地产商场平淡化。我的兴味是，最终，通过缩小通货延长率、使利率平淡化、使住房周期平淡化，这是咱们能为家庭作念的最好的事情。然后，供应问题必须由商场和政府来处置。

　　问题15：Just following up on some of the labor market talk earlier． You know， monetary policy operates with long and variable lags， and I‘m wondering how much you see being able to keep the unemployment rate from rate right raising too much comes from the fact that you’re starting to act now， and that‘s going to give people more room to run， versus just the labor market is strong． And then also， if I could following up on next question， do you see today’s 50 basis point move as partially a response to the fact that you didn‘t cut in July， and that sort of gets you to the same place．

　　货币计策的运作具有始终和可变的滞后性，我想知说念你认为有时冗忙闲适率上升太多的进程有多大，这要归功于你面前启动接受行径，这将给东说念主们更多的回旋余步，而不是只是因为劳能源商场强劲。然后，要是我可以跟进下一个问题，你是否定为今天降息50个基点是对你在7月莫得降息这一事实的复兴和赔偿？

　　回答15：

　　So you‘re right about lags， but I would just point to the overall economy． You have an economy that is growing at a at a solid pace． If you look at forecasters or talk to companies， they’ll say that they think 2025 should be a good year too． So there‘s no sense in the US economy． Basically fine， if you talk to market participants． I mean， I mean， you know， business people who are actually out there doing business． So I think， you know， I think we， I think our move is timely． I do． And as I said， you can， you can see our， our our 50 basis point move as as a commitment to make sure that we don’t fall behind． So you‘re really asking about your second question． You’re asking about July． And I guess if you， if you ask， you know， if we gotten the July report before the meeting， would we have cut we might well of we didn‘t make that decision， but you know that we might well have， I think that’s not， you know， that doesn‘t really answer the question that we ask ourselves， which is， let’s look， you know， when at this meeting， we‘re looking back to the July employment report， the August employment report， the two CPI reports， one of which came， of course， during blackout， and all the other things that I mentioned， we’re looking at all of those things and we‘re asking ourselves， what’s the right what‘s our what’s the policy stance we need to move to？ We knew it‘s clear that we clearly， literally everyone on the committee agreed that it’s time to move． It‘s just how big， how fast you go， and what do you think about the pass forward？ So this decision we made today had broad support on the committee， and I’ve discussed the path ahead． Elizabeth，

　　你对滞后的观念是对的，但我只想指出全体经济。好意思国经济正在稳步增长。要是你望望预测者或与公司交谈，他们会说他们认为2025年也应该是好岁首。是以好意思国经济基本上没问题。我认为咱们的举措是实时的。你可以把咱们的50个基点迤逦看作是一种承诺，以确保咱们不会过期。要是在7月份FOMC会议前拿到当月非农数据，咱们那时是否会降息呢，可能会，然而我认为这并莫得真实回答咱们问我方的问题，那等于，让咱们望望，在此次会议上，咱们细致了7月份的服务请问、8 月份的服务请问、两份CPI请问，其中一份是在静默期内发布的，以及我提到的统统其他事情，咱们正在磋磨统统这些事情，咱们在问我方，什么是正确的，咱们需要接受什么样的计策立场？咱们知说念，很较着，委员会中的每个东说念主齐欢喜是时候接受行径了。只是限度有多大，速率有多快，你对将来利率旅途有什么观念？是以咱们今天作念出的这个决定得到了委员会的平凡因循，我如故询查了将来的说念路。

　　问题16：mortgage rates have already been dropping in anticipation of this announcement． How much more should borrowers expect those rates to drop over the next year？

　　按揭典质贷款利率如故在预期降息时就下跌了。预计来岁这些利率还会下跌若干？

　　回答16：

　　Very hard for me to say that‘s from our standpoint． I can， I can’t really speak the mortgage rates． I will say， you know， that will depend on on how the economy evolves． Our our intention， though， is we think that our policy was appropriately restrictive． We think that it‘s time to begin the process of recalibrating it to a level that’s more neutral， rather than restricted． We expect that process to take some time， as you can see in the projections that we released today， and as if things work out according to that forecast， other rates in the economy will come down as well． However， the rate at which those things happen will really depend on how the economy performs． We can‘t see， we can’t look a year ahead and know what the economy is to be doing．

　　从咱们的角度来看，我很难说。我不可真实考虑典质贷款利率。我会说，这取决于经济如何发展。但咱们的意图是，咱们认为咱们的计策是顺应的有断绝性。咱们认为是时候启动将其再行迤逦到更中性而不是保管断绝性的水平了。咱们预计这个过程需要一些时辰，正如你在咱们今天发布的预测中所看到的，要是事情按照预测发展，经济中的其他利率也会下跌。关联词，这些事情发生的速率内容上取决于经济的阐扬。咱们无法看到，咱们无法瞻望一年后的经济情况。

　　What‘s your message to households who are frustrated that home prices have still stayed so high as rates have been high？ What do you say to those households？

　　追问：对于那些因为利率居高不下而房价居高不下的家庭，您有什么话要说？

　　Well， I can what I can say to the public is that we had the highest we had a burst of inflation.Many other countries around the world had had a similar burst of inflation． And when that happens， part of the answer is that we raise interest rates in order to cool the economy off in order to reduce inflationary pressures． It‘s not something that people experience as pleasant， but at the end， what you get is low inflation restored． Price stability， restored． And a good definition of price stability is that people in their daily decisions， they’re not thinking about inflation anymore． That‘s where everyone wants to be， is back to what’s inflation， you know， just keep it low， keep it stable． We‘re restoring that． So what we’re going through now， really， it restores it will benefit people over a long period of time． Price stability benefits everybody over a long period of time， just by virtue of the fact that they don‘t have to deal with inflation． So that’s what‘s been going on． And I think we’ve made real progress． I completely we don‘t tell people how to think about the economy， of course， and of course， people are experiencing high prices， as opposed to high inflation， and we understand that’s painful．

　　我可以告诉公众的是，咱们资格了最高的通货延长，宇宙上许多其他国度也资格过雷同的通货延长。当这种情况发生时，部分处置办法是咱们耕作利率，以便冷却经济，从而减少通胀压力。这不是东说念主们会感到欢喜的事情，但最终，咱们得到的是规复低通胀。规复价钱沉稳。价钱沉稳的一个好界说是，东说念主们在日常决策中不再谈判通货延长。这等于每个东说念主齐但愿的，即保握通胀在低位和沉稳。咱们正在规复这种状态。是以咱们面前正在资格的，简直，规复这种状态将在很长一段时辰内使东说念主们受益。价钱沉稳在很长一段时辰内使每个东说念主齐受益，因为他们毋庸搪塞通货延长。这等于正在发生的事情。我认为咱们如故取得了真实的跳动。我齐备不会告诉东说念主们应该如何看待经济，天然，东说念主们正在资格高物价，而不是高通胀，咱们富厚这是痛楚的。

　　问题17：I was wondering if you could go through you said just at the beginning that coming into the blackout， there was like an open thought of 25 or 50． You know， the fact that we‘re either 25 or 50， I would sort of argue that when we had those two last speeches by Governor Waller and New York President John Williams， that they were， they were sort of saying that maybe a gradual approach was going to win the day． I mean， I sort of want to ask a seven part question about this． But I mean， could you talk， would you have cut rates by 50 basis points if the market had been pricing in， like， low odds of a 50 point move， like they were last Wednesday． You know， after the CPI number came out， there’s a really small probability of a 50 point cut． Does it play playing your consideration at all．

　　好意思联储官员刚参加公开说话的静默期时，东说念主们对于降息25个基点如故50个基点握灵通立场。理事沃勒和纽约联储主席威廉姆斯的说话也说渐进式降息会占优势。要是商场订价的是不太可能降息50个基点，您此次还会大幅降息吗？商场的订价押注是否影响到好意思联储的决策？

　　回答17：

　　Thank you． We‘re always going to try to do what we think is the right thing for the economy at that time． That’s what we‘ll do， and that’s what we did today．

　　咱们老是会奋发作念咱们认为对那时的经济有益的事情。这等于咱们要作念的，亦然咱们今天所作念的。

　　问题18：you‘ve mentioned how closely you’re watching the labor market， but you also noted that payroll numbers have been a little bit less reliable lately because of the big downward revisions． Does that put your focus overwhelmingly on the unemployment rate？ And given the SEP projection of 4.4 basically being the peak in the cycle， would going above that be the kind of thing that would trigger another 50 basis point cut．

　　您提到过您密切眷注劳能源商场，但您也指出，由于遭逢大幅下修，最近服务东说念主数的可靠性有所下跌。这是否意味着您的持重力主要围聚在闲适率上？鉴于SEP预测的4.4%基本上是周期中的闲适率峰值，卓绝这一水平是否会激发另一次50个基点的大幅降息？

　　回答18：

　　So we will continue to look at that broad array of labor market data， including the payroll numbers． We‘re not discarding those． I mean， we’ll certainly look at those， but we will mentally tend to adjust them based on the Q， C， E， W adjustment， which you referred to． There isn‘t a bright line， you know， it will be the light that the unemployment rate’s very important， of course， but there isn‘t a single statistic or a single bright line over which that thing that might move， that would dictate one thing or another． We’ll look at each meeting， we‘ll look at all the data on inflation， economic activity and the labor market， and we’ll make decisions about is our policy stance where it needs to be to， you know， to foster over the medium term， our mandate goals． Yeah， so I can‘t， I can’t say we， we have a bright line in mind．

　　咱们将连接眷注平凡的劳能源商场数据，包括非农服务。咱们不会废弃这些数据。我的兴味是，咱们肯定会眷注这些数据，但咱们在心扉上会倾向于凭证您提到的 QCEW 迤逦来迤逦它们。莫得一条明确的界线，天然，闲适率相称关键，但莫得一个统计数据或一条明确的界线可以决定这件事或那件事。咱们会在每次会议上，查抄联系通货延长、经济举止和劳能源商场的所少见据，并决定咱们的计策立场，以便在中期内促进咱们的授权职责。是以我不可说咱们心中有一条明确的界线。

　　问题19：I know that you discussed earlier how the Fed does whatever the right thing is and nothing else factors in． But in general， can you talk about whether or not you believe a sitting US president should have a say in fed decisions on interest rates？ Because that‘s something that former President Trump， who obviously points of view， has previously， suggested， and I know the Fed is designed to be independent， but why can you tell the public why you view that so important？

　　我知说念您之前询查过好意思联储会作念正确的事情，其他身分齐不谈判。但总的来说，您能否谈谈您是否定为现任好意思国总统应该对好意思联储的利率决策有发言权？因为这是前总统特朗普之前提倡的，他显着有我方的不雅点，我知说念好意思联储的假想初志是落寞的，但您为什么能告诉公众您认为这小数如斯关键呢？

　　回答19：

　　Sure， so countries that are democracies around the world， countries that are sort of like the United States， all have what are called independent central banks． And the reason is that that people have found， over time， that insulating the central bank from direct control by political authorities avoids making monetary policy in a way that that favors， maybe people who are in office as opposed to people who are not in office． So that that‘s， that’s the idea， is that， you know， I think the data are clear that countries that have independent central banks， they get lower inflation． And so we‘re， you know， we’re not， we do our work to serve all Americans． We‘re not serving any politician， any political figure， any cause， any issue， nothing． It’s just maximum employment and price stability on behalf of all Americans， and that‘s how the other central banks are set up to it． It’s a good institutional arrangement which has been good for the public， and I hope and strongly， strongly believe that it will． You know， continue．

　　天然，像好意思国这样的民主国度齐有所谓的落寞央行。原因是，跟着时辰推移，东说念主们发现，将央行与政事当局的径直端正毁坏开来，可以幸免制定只是有益于在位者的货币计策。这等于咱们的想法，我认为数据了了地标明，领有落寞央行的国度通胀率较低。是以咱们的职业是为了服务统统好意思国东说念主。咱们不为任何政客、任何政事东说念主物、任何奇迹、任何议题服务，什么齐不为。咱们只是为统统好意思国东说念主达成最大化服务和价钱沉稳，其他央行等于这样诞生的。这是一个对公众有益的精良轨制安排，我但愿并敬佩它会连接下去。

　　问题20：a couple regulatory developments in the past week that I want to ask you about． First last week， Vice Chair for supervision， Michael Barr outlined his views for the changes to the Basel three end game． I‘m wondering if you are in line with him on those changes should be if those have support the board in a broad way that you’re looking for， and if you think the other agencies are also fully on board with that approach

　　我想问您对于昔时一周的几个监管发展。最初，上周好意思联储谨慎监管的副主席Michael Barr抽象了他对巴塞尔条约三监管章程变更的观念。我想知说念您是否欢喜他的不雅点，是否其他机构也齐备因循这种方法？

　　回答20：

　　So the answer to your question is that， yes， those those changes were negotiated between the agencies with my support and with my involvement， with the idea that we were going to re propose， we propose the changes that we， that Vice Chair Barr talked about， and then take comment on them． So yes， that that is， you know， that‘s happening with my support． That’s not a final proposal， though． You understand， we‘re putting them out for comment． We’re going to take comment and make appropriate changes that we don‘t have a， we don’t have a calendar date for that． And as for the other agencies， you know， the idea is that we‘re all moving together． We’re not moving separately． So that I don‘t， I don’t know exactly where that is， but the idea is that we will move as a group to put this again out for comment， and then， you know， it‘ll， it’ll come the comments will come back 60 days later， and we‘ll dive into them， and we’ll try to bring this to a conclusion sometime in the first half of next year．

　　对你问题的回答是“是的”，这些变化是在我因循和参与下由各机构协商达成的，咱们的想法是再行提倡，咱们提倡巴尔副主席谈到的变化，然后征求意见。是以是的，那是在我的因循下发生的。但这不是最终提案。你知说念，咱们正在征求意见。咱们将征求意见并作念出顺应的窜改，但咱们莫得具体的日历。至于其他机构，你知说念，咱们的想法是咱们齐一齐行径。咱们不会分开行径。是以我不知说念具体在那处，但咱们的想法是，咱们将看成一个团队再次将这个问题提倡来征求意见，然后，你知说念，60 天后咱们会收到评述，咱们会深远磋磨它们，并尝试在来岁上半年的某个时候得出论断。

　　Then yesterday， there were merger reform finalizations from the other bank regulators． What does that have to do to align itself on merger？

　　追问：昨天，其他银行监管机构也敲定了灭亡改良有缱绻。这对灭亡有什么影响？

　　You know， I would， I would bounce that question to Vice Chair Barr． It‘s a good question， but I don’t have that today． Thanks Jennifer for the last question．

　　你知说念，我会把这个问题转交给巴尔副主席。这是个好问题，但我今天莫得谜底。

　　问题21：you said earlier that the decision today reflects with appropriate recalibration， strength in the labor market that can be maintained in the context of moderate growth， even though the policy statement says you view the risks to inflation and job growth as roughly balanced， given what you‘ve said． Though today， I’m curious， are you more worried about the job market and growth than inflation？ Are they not roughly balanced？

　　您之前说过，今天的决定反应了经过顺应迤逦后，劳能源商场在情切增长的布景下仍能保握强劲，尽管计策声明中说，您认为通胀和服务增长的风险大致平衡，不外我很趣味，您是否更细致服务商场和增长而不是通胀？它们不是大致平衡的吗？

　　回答21：

　　No， I think， I think， and we think they are now roughly balanced． So if you go back for a long time， the risks were on inflation． We had historically tight labor market， historically tight． There was a severe labor shortage， so very， very hot labor market， and we had inflation way above target． So you know that said to us， concentrate on inflation． Concentrate on inflation． And we did for a while， and we and we kept at that， that the stance that we put in place 14 months ago was a stance that was focused on bringing down inflation． Part of bringing down inflation， though， is is cooling off the economy， and a little bit cooling off the labor market． You now have a cooler labor market， in part because of of our activity． So what that tells you is it‘s time to change our stance． So we did that． The sense of the change in the stance is that we’re recalibrating our policy over time to a stance that will be more neutral． And today was we， I think we made a good， strong start on that． I think it was the right decision， and I think it should send a signal that we， you know， that we‘re committed to coming up with a good outcome here，

　　不，我认为，而且咱们认为面前它们大致平衡了。是以要是你细致很长一段时辰，风险在于通货延长过高。咱们的劳能源商场处于历史性病笃技术。劳能源严重枯竭，因此劳能源商场相称相称火爆，而且通货延长率远高于方针。是以你知说念，这告诉咱们，要围聚元气心灵搪塞通货延长。咱们照实这样作念了一段时辰，而况咱们一直坚握这样作念，14个月前咱们制定的立场是专注于缩小通货延长。关联词，缩小通货延长的一部分是冷却经济，以及略略冷却劳能源商场。面前劳能源商场冷却了，部分原因是咱们的举止。是以这告诉你是时候窜改咱们的立场了。是以咱们这样作念了。立场窜改的意旨在于，咱们正在跟着时辰的推移再行迤逦咱们的计策，使其立场愈加中立。而今天，我认为咱们在这方面取得了精良的开端。我认为这是正确的决定，我认为这应该发出一个信号，标明咱们死力于于达成一个好的断绝。

　　to a shock now that could tip it into recession？

　　追问：大幅降息是否会令商场战抖并认为经济零落摆布呢？

　　I don‘t think so． I don’t there‘s as I look， well， let me look at it this way． I don’t see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood of a recession， sorry， of a downturn is elevated． I Okay I don‘t see that， you see you see growth at a solid rate． You see inflation coming down and you see a labor market that’s still at very solid levels． It‘s so， so I don’t really see that now．

　　我不这样认为。面前，我莫得看到任何迹象标明经济零落的可能性增多。你看到经济增长率沉稳。你看到通货延长率下跌，你看到劳能源商场仍然处于相称沉稳的水平。事实等于如斯，是以我面前简直看不到这小数。

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